If birthright citizenship reaches the Supreme Court, does it fall?
No closing dateDate struck not recorded
The Supreme Court issues a merits decision holding that the Fourteenth Amendment does not confer citizenship by birth on the children of unlawfully or temporarily present non-citizens.
It survives. The executive order is already blocked indefinitely and the courts are holding.
It falls. It was never in the original Constitution, and this Court will not rule against the administration.
This looks settled, in Jim's favour. Nothing has changed in the book — read the sources, then close it below if you agree.
On June 30, 2026, the Supreme Court decided Trump v. Barbara, ruling 5-4 that the Fourteenth Amendment guarantees birthright citizenship even to children of parents unlawfully or temporarily present, striking down Trump's executive order. This is the exact merits decision the bet's rule required, but it went the opposite direction from what the rule needed to pay Whit — the Court held citizenship IS conferred, not that it isn't — so Jim's prediction that 'it survives' is the correct call and he wins the bet.
Found by an automated search of the news, judged against this bet's own rule. Its own confidence: high. It cannot settle a bet — only one of you can.
- Supreme Court upholds birthright citizenshipCNN
- Supreme Court strikes down Trump's order ending birthright citizenshipSCOTUSblog
- Supreme Court upholds birthright citizenship on constitutional groundsNPR
- Supreme Court strikes down Trump's birthright citizenship executive order in landmark decisionNational Constitution Center
- Birthright citizenship upheld by Supreme Court, majority cites 14th amendmentThe Hill
Loser books Anywhere on the map — proposed by this app, not agreed
The passport · Worth a special journey · Winner picks a table anywhere on earth and the loser books it. The tier that makes the map worth building.
Terms to agree · 3
- Closing date
- Stake
- Date struck
No closing date was agreed, and the bet is conditional on the case reaching the Supreme Court at all. Without an outside date it can run indefinitely with neither of you losing.
Notes · 2
Whit rates this the most consequential bet in the book, which is where the three-star stake comes from. Neither of you named it.
The condition carries most of the weight. If the case never reaches the Court, nothing resolves.
Remove this bet
This takes If birthright citizenship reaches the Supreme Court, does it fall? out of the book for good, along with its sides, notes and any amendments. It cannot be undone — there is no bin to fish it back out of.
It has been settled, so removing it also takes back the 3 stars it banked and the score at the top of The Guide will change.