Does Elon Musk make a run at the presidency in 2028 or 2032?
Closes 2 November 2032in 2,243 daysStruck 30 Jul 2026
Elon Musk becomes a declared candidate for President in the 2028 or 2032 cycle — an FEC filing, or ballot access in a primary or general election.
He does not. He is not popular, and the requirement still means born in the United States.
He finds a way to run in one of the two cycles.
No FEC filing or ballot access exists for Musk in 2028 or 2032 — the bet remains open. If anything, recent reporting (mid-2025) suggests Musk backed off his own 'America Party' idea and is instead considering backing JD Vance for 2028, while Musk himself has publicly acknowledged the natural-born-citizen requirement blocks him. Nothing has moved the needle toward Whit's side, and Jim's constitutional-eligibility argument still stands unchallenged.
Found by an automated search of the news, judged against this bet's own rule. Its own confidence: medium. It cannot settle a bet — only one of you can.
- Elon Musk Teases 2028 Presidential Bid Despite BanLawyer Monthly · 2025-03-31
- Elon Musk reportedly eyeing JD Vance for 2028 as he hits the brakes on plans for a new political partyAOL/Wall Street Journal
- Musk Backs Off 'America Party' Plans, Report SaysForbes (via mexc.com repost)
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Terms to agree · 1
- Stake
Election day 2032 is the outside edge of the second cycle named. It could settle far earlier: the moment he files or appears on a primary ballot, the bet is done.
Notes · 2
This is what the citizenship pair is the mechanism for, and Jim identified that dependency himself.
The rule turns on running, not winning. Worth confirming that is what was meant.
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This takes Does Elon Musk make a run at the presidency in 2028 or 2032? out of the book for good, along with its sides, notes and any amendments. It cannot be undone — there is no bin to fish it back out of.