Does Samuel Alito leave the Court in time for a replacement to be seated before the midterms?
Closes 3 January 2027in 113 daysStruck 30 Jul 2026
Samuel Alito publicly announces his retirement or resignation from the Supreme Court on or before the closing date.
Samuel Alito stays.
Samuel Alito goes, locking in a long-term majority ahead of a mid-term swing.
On June 30, 2026, NPR published a story claiming Justice Alito had announced his retirement, but this was based on a misheard/misreported announcement — NPR retracted the story within hours, and the Supreme Court's Public Information Office confirmed neither Alito nor the Court had made any such announcement. As of now, Alito remains on the bench with no retirement or resignation announced, so the bet's settlement condition has not been triggered; this was a false alarm exactly like the scenario flagged in the rules.
Found by an automated search of the news, judged against this bet's own rule. Its own confidence: high. It cannot settle a bet — only one of you can.
- NPR retracts story about Alito retirementNPR · 2026-06-30
- NPR Retracts Report That Justice Samuel Alito Is RetiringDeadline · 2026-07-01
- No, Samuel Alito Has Not Retired From The Supreme Court—False Story Goes ViralForbes · 2026-06-30
- Supreme Court denies report that Justice Samuel Alito is retiringWCAX · 2026-06-30
Loser buys Wherever we already are
The house bet · Worth a stop · Loser picks up dinner next time you are in the same city anyway. No flights, no scheduling — it settles when it settles.
On the closing date
Inferred rather than agreed. 3 January 2027 is when the next Congress is seated, which is the deadline the bet's own logic implies. If election day was meant instead, that is 3 November 2026.
Notes · 2
Split into one bet per justice: they resolve independently, and a combined version would be ambiguous the moment exactly one of them went.
Date struck is the day this entered the book, not necessarily the day it was said — the original message carried no date.
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This takes Does Samuel Alito leave the Court in time for a replacement to be seated before the midterms? out of the book for good, along with its sides, notes and any amendments. It cannot be undone — there is no bin to fish it back out of.