Does Clarence Thomas leave the Court in time for a replacement to be seated before the midterms?
Closes 3 January 2027in 113 daysStruck 30 Jul 2026
Clarence Thomas publicly announces his retirement or resignation from the Supreme Court on or before the closing date.
Clarence Thomas stays.
Clarence Thomas goes, locking in a long-term majority ahead of a mid-term swing.
As of mid-2026, Clarence Thomas has given no public indication of retiring; CBS News and ABC News reported in April 2026 that sources close to him say he does not plan to step down this year, and a June 2026 report of a retirement was published and retracted. No official announcement has been made, so the bet remains unresolved, though the ongoing trend leans toward Thomas staying, which favors Jim's side.
Found by an automated search of the news, judged against this bet's own rule. Its own confidence: medium. It cannot settle a bet — only one of you can.
- Supreme Court Justices Alito and Thomas not planning to retire this year, sources sayCBS News · 2026-04-18
- Will Clarence Thomas retire from Supreme Court during Donald Trump's term?Newsweek · 2026-01-28
- Is Clarence Thomas Retiring? Latest Reports on the Supreme Court JusticeFINCHANNEL · 2026-06-30
- Justice Clarence Thomas laments 'very dicey' threats to judiciary and heightened security for Supreme CourtCNN · 2026-05-14
Loser buys Wherever we already are
The house bet · Worth a stop · Loser picks up dinner next time you are in the same city anyway. No flights, no scheduling — it settles when it settles.
On the closing date
Inferred rather than agreed. 3 January 2027 is when the next Congress is seated, which is the deadline the bet's own logic implies. If election day was meant instead, that is 3 November 2026.
Notes · 1
Date struck is the day this entered the book, not necessarily the day it was said — the original message carried no date.
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This takes Does Clarence Thomas leave the Court in time for a replacement to be seated before the midterms? out of the book for good, along with its sides, notes and any amendments. It cannot be undone — there is no bin to fish it back out of.