Does the world turn back toward authenticity, or further into devices and AI?
First closes 5 August 2027in 327 daysStruck 5 Aug 2024
No rule a stranger could check.
Neither position is measurable as written. There is no index, no threshold and no source a stranger could look up, so on the closing day neither of you can be shown to have lost. Agreeing one observable per checkpoint would fix it.
A broad return to authenticity. Human contact wins out over social media, and AI stalls once it fails to live up to what was promised — the human element turns out to be what actually matters.
People spend more time on devices, not less; a phone is a place you go. AI arrives first in the mundane layers — search, customer support, the admin of ordinary life — and in biomedical research.
There's no specific event to report because this bet's terms are explicitly unmeasurable — the book itself admits 'Neither position is measurable as written,' with no agreed index or threshold. General news since the bet's framing continues to show both trends coexisting (heavier AI use in search, customer support and biomedical research, alongside recurring 'digital detox'/authenticity commentary), but nothing has occurred that could resolve the wager as worded. Until Jim and Whit agree on a concrete, checkable observable, this bet cannot be settled one way or the other, even by the 2027-08-05 close.
Found by an automated search of the news, judged against this bet's own rule. Its own confidence: high. It cannot settle a bet — only one of you can.
- Year three5 August 2027327 days
- Year six5 August 20301,423 days
- Year nine5 August 20332,519 days
Terms to agree · 1
- A rule anyone could check
Notes · 3
Agreed in conversation on 5 August 2024: one argument, three checkpoints, the dinner growing a star at each.
Jim's marker for the moment technology overreached is the Tesla Cybertruck.
Worth settling between you: the horizon discussed at the time and the three-six-nine structure written down do not land on the same final year. One of them is out by a year.
Close a checkpoint
Remove this bet
This takes Does the world turn back toward authenticity, or further into devices and AI? out of the book for good, along with its sides, notes and any amendments. It cannot be undone — there is no bin to fish it back out of.